Palmeiras vs Flamengo
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 14 June 2018
Kick-off: 02:00 CET
Palmeiras are considered by betting companies second favorites to win the Série A title (behind only Flamengo), but last weekend they wasted a two-goal lead in Fortaleza, playing against the team that are sitting at the bottom of the table(!). Palmeiras had beaten Sao Paulo and Gremio (in Porto Alegre!) just before visiting Ceará, 23 minutes into the game they were 0-2 up, everything was going better than expected, they had a huge crowd cheering for them in the stands of Castelao, but soon they saw the gap get narrowed down to one goal. Roger Machado’s team kept control of the game, missed good chances to secure all three points, but, come 88th minute, they… managed to drop the ball, get equalized, and waste two points they could and should have earned. They are on 18 points, eight behind leaders Flamengo, which gives you an idea how important this match is for both, but mostly for Palmeiras.
Flamengo will finish first before the World Cup finals break no matter what happens in this game, but the fact that they are visiting a team that is considered a direct rival in the title fight makes this a “six-point match”. Last weekend, they were far better than Paraná and beat them 2-0 at home, the last game of Vinicius Junior and Felipe Vizeu wearing Fla’s jersey in Rio de Janeiro, before crossing the Atlantic to continue their career in Europe. Everything seems to be working at Flamengo. They have five wins in a row in the championship, not having conceded a single goal(!), and three of those matches were against Atlético Mineiro, Corinthians and Fluminense. Plus, they just renewed the contract of Colombian midfielder Cuéllar, showing that they don’t intend to lose more players (even though, Lucas Paquetá could still leave the club, according to reports).
Previous five matches:
Ceara vs Palmeiras 2-2
Gremio vs Palmeiras 0-2
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo 3-1
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 1-0
Palmeiras vs Sport Recife 2-3
Flamengo vs Parana 2-0
Fluminense vs Flamengo 0-2
Flamengo vs Corinthians 1-0
Flamengo vs Bahia 2-0
Atletico Mineiro vs Flamengo 0-1
Both teams’ next official game is right after the World Cup finals.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: Head to head Stats
Three wins for Palmeiras and two draws in the last five games between these two in Sao Paulo.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: Prediction
It feels like Palmeiras should look more motivated than Flamengo, because they are the ones with their back against the wall, trailing by eight points in the table. Still, I don’t trust them to beat the hottest team in the country.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: Betting Tips
Given that Palmeiras’ win in “draw no bet” is at just 1.44 and their double chance doesn’t pay more than 1.25, for something really worth it I would bet on “under 2.5 goals”, at 1.70, keeping in mind Flamengo’s impeccable record these last weeks (no goal conceded in five consecutive Série A games). If I bet on Palmeiras’ win without the safety net of “draw no bet”, I would go all in, choosing their victory combined with “under 2.5 goals”, at 4.33, suiting my hunch that if they win, they will score just once, and then hang on to that lead.