Parana vs Vitoria
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 4 November 2018
Kick-off: 20:00 CET
Paraná have four guys back, four players who, for different reasons, missed the game at Cruzeiro last weekend (3-1 defeat), but… at this point, nothing seems to be making any difference. They are on just 17 points from 31 matches, and Vitória, the team they are hosting, second-to-last in the table, have… double those points, 33. Paraná players say it’s a matter of honor for them to win this game, but all they’ve managed in their last eight was a draw, at home, versus Vasco da Gama. Their last win came on July 22(!), which feels (and is indeed) way-way back in time. Thirteen goals scored in 31 games, another pathetic number that explains why Paraná failed so… spectacularly in this season’s Série A.
Paraná have nothing but their pride to play for. Vitória, on the other hand, have absolutely everything to play for. On 33 points, they may be second-to-last in the table, but the first teams right above the relegation line are within striking distance, so, at the end of the season, a single result may have made all the difference. Several fans went to Salvador’s airport to support the team, right before they flew to Curitiba. Center-back Lucas Ribeiro is out due to cards. Another center-back, Bruno Bispo, as well as winger Luan, are also unavailable due to injuries. Interestingly, coach Paulo César Carpegiani left Argentinian center-forward Walter Bou and Wallyson, another striker, back home. Instead, he took youngster Eron with him to Curitiba, an attacker-product of Vitória’s academy.
Previous five matches:
Cruzeiro vs Parana 3-1
Parana vs Flamengo 0-4
Bahia vs Parana 2-0
Fluminense vs Parana 4-0
Parana vs Vasco da Gama 1-1
Vitoria vs Sao Paulo 0-1
Vitoria vs Corinthians 2-2
Chapecoense vs Vitoria 0-1
Vitoria vs Santos 0-1
Internacional vs Vitoria 2-1
Paraná’s next game is at América Mineiro, on Saturday. A day later, Vitória will be hosting Bahia in Salvador’s big derby (both Série A matches).
Parana vs Vitoria: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Paraná, one for Bahia, and two draws, in the five games between these two the last 10 years in Curitiba.
Parana vs Vitoria: Prediction
Vitória beat Chapecoense in their last away game, showing that… there is still pulse in them. Even so, I don’t trust them enough to back them to win without the safety net of “draw no bet”. Problem is, like that, their win pays too little.
Parana vs Vitoria: Betting Tips
I prefer to bet on goals. Paraná have the worst, by far, scoring record in the league, and Vitória struggle to send the ball in, when playing on the road. “Under 2.5 goals” is at 1.53, low, so I would risk with “under 1.5”, at 2.62. “No” on “both teams to score” pays 1.70, acceptable, I reckon.