Penarol vs The Strongest
Competition: Copa Libertadores
Date: 18 May 2018
Kick-off: 00:15 CET
The… frustrating reality for Peñarol is that they don’t depend on themselves alone. Things are simple; they absolutely need to beat The Strongest, so as to reach nine points, and they need Libertad to beat Atlético Tucumán in Asunción, so that the Argentines get stuck at nine points. If they finish level, Peñarol will have a better goal difference, and make it to the last 16. Coach Leonardo Ramos saw three guys make themselves available these last days, recovering from minor injuries. Guillermo Varela, Cristian Rodríguez and Cristian Palacios, all three are expected to start the game. Last weekend, Peñarol lost 4-3 at Progreso, scoring two goals in the last 25 minutes to minimize the extent of their embarrassment.
It’s all over for The Strongest. On just three points from five matches, their chances of finishing third, so as to play Copa Sudamericana football in the second half of the season, are purely mathematical. They need to beat Peñarol by five goals(!). Cannot happen. César Farías, the coach of the Bolivian side, chose to leave behind many regulars, and include in the group several youngsters. Brazilian-Bolivian Fernando Marteli, Ecuadorian Edison Carcelén, Colombian Edis Ibargüen, and Paraguayan-Bolivian and captain of the team Pablo “Pájaro” Escobar, are among those who stayed back. The Strongest just qualified for the semifinals of their championship, and in a few days they are facing Bolívar in the first leg.
Previous five matches:
Progreso vs Peñarol 4-3
Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting 4-1
Atletico Tucuman vs Penarol 1-0
Progreso vs Penarol 0-1
Penarol vs Libertad 2-0
The Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero 5-1
Oriente Petrolero vs The Strongest 0-1
The Strongest vs Libertad 1-3
Atletico Tucuman vs The Strongest 3-0
The Strongest vs Sport Boys 3-0
Peñarol’s next game is on Sunday, again at home, versus River Plate (Uruguay championship). Same day, The Strongest will be facing Bolívar (Bolivia championship).
Penarol vs The Strongest: Head to head Stats
Peñarol have hosted The Strongest three times before. They… dismembered them 9-0 in 1971, drew 1-1 in 1989, and beat them 4-0 in 2004. All three were Copa Libertadores group stage matches.
Penarol vs The Strongest: Prediction
I cannot imagine Peñarol not winning this game.
Penarol vs The Strongest: Betting Tips
A simple Peñarol victory pays too little, under 1.20. Even combined with a clean sheet, it doesn’t go higher than 1.66. My main tip is “under 2.5 goals”, at 2.20. Last but not least, “Peñarol and under 2.5 goals” is at 3.10. I don’t expect them to concede, but I seriously doubt they will score more than twice.
More Copa Libertadores betting tips and match previews: