Poland vs Lithuania
Competition: International friendly
Date: 12 June 2018
Kick-off: 18:00 CET
Looking at how Poland have done in their last friendly games, I’m left with a… sophisticated(…) “hmmm”. A few days ago they hosted Chile, they scored twice in five minutes (30’-34’), took a 2-0 lead, but somehow managed to waste it, drawing 2-2. If you go back to their March friendly game against South Korea, and you… break it down, you notice something interesting. Back then, as well, Poland had taken a 2-0 lead in the first half. Guess what happened between the 85’ and the 87th minute… They conceded twice. They did win that game 3-2, but it’s interesting that both times they wasted two-goal leads. Going further back, you see 1-0 defeats to Nigeria and Mexico. Actually, the last time they won, was in October, that 4-2 at home over Montenegro, in the World Cup qualifiers. Remember, they lost Kamil Glik a few days ago, their best defender. He got injured in training, and won’t be in the finals.
Lithuania almost earned a flattering draw a few days ago, when they faced Iran in a friendly game. They lost 1-0, conceding in the 88th minute. They beat Armenia 1-0 back in March, their only win in their last 13 matches (10 of those, lost). They have scored just one goal in their last three games, three in their last nine, sort of… screaming out loud that scoring is a serious problem for them. Playing against a World Cup finalist, in their last friendly test before the finals, and, in Warsaw, not at some neutral place, limits Lithuania’s chances of a positive result to almost zero.
Previous five matches:
Poland vs Chile 2-2
Poland vs South Korea 3-2
Poland vs Nigeria 0-1
Poland vs Mexico 0-1
Poland vs Uruguay 0-0
Iran vs Lithuania 1-0
Lithuania vs Latvia 1-1
Estonia vs Lithuania 2-0
Armenia vs Lithuania 0-1
Georgia vs Lithuania 4-0
Poland’s next game is against Senegal, next Tuesday, in the World Cup finals. Lithuania will be facing Serbia in September.
Poland vs Lithuania: Head to head Stats
Poland have hosted Lithuania six times in the past. They have won three of those games, drawn in two, and the visitors have celebrated one victory back in 2006. All games were friendly ones.
Poland vs Lithuania: Prediction
Poland have struggled in their friendly matches ever since they finished first in their World Cup qualifiers group, but at least against Lithuania, just before flying to Russia, playing in front of their own fans, they should win.
Poland vs Lithuania: Betting Tips
I will be very-very surprised if Poland don’t win, but their victory is at just 1.20. I expect them to score at least twice. “Over 2.5 goals”, combined with their win, pays 1.90, and I consider the risk worth it. “Poland to win and keep a clean sheet” is another option, paying slightly less (1.80).