Romania vs Lithuania
Competition: UEFA Nations League
Date: 17 November 2018
Kick-off: 20:45 CET
Draw felt like the most probable result to me last month, when Romania hosted Serbia. It was at 3.20, my main tip back then, and it came good, as the game ended without goals. It wasn’t the result the Romanians needed, they remained two points behind leaders Serbia, but they had a player sent-off in the 44th minute, luckily for them Serbia missed, a minute later, the penalty they had just won, and Romania had to play 10 vs 11 in the entire second half. With these in mind, things in that game could have gone much worse, result-wise. Winning this game is an absolute must for them. They need to go to nine points, and see how the game between Serbia and Montenegro goes. On Tuesday, they are visiting Montenegro. Important detail: if they end up level on points with Serbia, which looks like a real possibility, they are the ones who have the advantage, because they drew 2-2 in Belgrade, and 0-0 in Bucharest. The away goals give them the upper hand.
That goal Lithuania scored in the 88th minute, “wasted” my “Montenegro to win and keep a clean sheet” tip, at 2.90, last month. The Lithuanians still lost though, 1-4 (Montenegro’s win at 1.91 was my main tip). They are at the bottom of the group table, having lost all four matches. Something over a month ago, they were losing 0-1 to Romania in Vilnius until the 89th minute, when they equalized. They failed to hold on to that draw, as they conceded again, in added time. What was interesting about their 1-4 defeat to Montenegro three days later, was that they finished that match on 16 attempts(!), one more(!) than Montenegro. Even the difference in the “on target” ones was small, 6-8 for the Balkans. Lithuania had to wait until the 88th minute to send the ball in though, and by then, they were already losing 0-4.
Previous five matches:
Romania vs Serbia 0-0
Lithuania vs Romania 1-2
Serbia vs Romania 2-2
Romania vs Montenegro 0-0
Romania vs Finland 2-0
Lithuania vs Montenegro 1-4
Lithuania vs Romania 1-2
Montenegro vs Lithuania 2-0
Lithuania vs Serbia 0-1
Poland vs Lithuania 4-0
Romania’s next game is in Montenegro, on Tuesday. Same day, Lithuania will be visiting Serbia (both Nations League matches).
Romania vs Lithuania: Head to head Stats
Romania have hosted Lithuania six times in the past; five wins for them, one for the Lithuanians (0-3, in the 2010 World Cup qualifiers). Total goals, 10-3.
Romania vs Lithuania: Prediction
No game is won in advance, but really, it will be a massive surprise if this decent Romania fails to beat this Lithuania.
Romania vs Lithuania: Betting Tips
A simple Romania win is at just 1.30. Combined with a clean sheet, that goes up to 1.72. I don’t expect a… wild score, just a clear Romania win, so for more than 1.72, I would risk with “Romania and under 2.5 goals”, at 2.60, suiting my 2-0 hunch.