Sao Paulo vs Botafogo
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 19 November 2017
Kick-off: 20:00 CET
You can watch ten times Lucas Pratto’s disallowed goal at Gremio, and still you won’t be sure that he was offside. Somehow the assistant referee was THAT sure that he raised his flag right away. Sao Paulo lost 1-0 at Gremio, even though, given how they played in the last half hour, someone could say they deserved one goal. Actually, you could say they GOT one goal, but… the assistant referee made sure it didn’t count. Sao Paulo are 12th, they have two of their last three games at home (where they have won four of their last five matches, and five of their last eight), so they should, under… normal circumstances, finish in a position that will come with a ticket to next season’s Copa Sudamericana. It’s not… huge, but it’s something, keeping in mind that the team spent a big part of the season ‘flirting’ with relegation.
Botafogo’s fans definitely didn’t like it, but… in a way, their loss to Atletico Goianiense at home the other day, and not just the final score (1-2), but also how the 90 minutes went as a whole, is one of the things that make the Brazil Serie A so exciting to follow and watch. You had a Copa Libertadores team on one side, needing the points to secure a ticket to the biggest competition for next season as well, and on the other side you had the team that have been stuck at the bottom of the table for… months now, and their only chances of avoiding relegation at this point are mathematical. Botafogo lost, not because Atletico parked the bus and got lucky on two occasions to score, but because Atletico gave their all in both halves of the pitch for 90 minutes, and simply got rewarded for that. Botafogo remained 6th in the table, a position good enough to secure them Copa Libertadores group stage football next season only if Gremio win the competition this year (emptying a spot for another Serie A team – Cruzeiro are 5th, but they have already won the Copa do Brasil, getting a Libertadores group stage spot as a bonus for that).
Previous 5 matches:
Gremio vs Sao Paulo 1-0
Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo 1-1
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense 2-2
Atletico GO vs Sao Paulo 0-1
Sao Paulo vs Santos 2-1
Botafogo vs Atletico GO 1-2
Botafogo vs Atletico PR 0-1
Sport Recife vs Botafogo 1-2
Botafogo vs Fluminense 1-2
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo 0-0
Sao Paulo’s next game is at Coritiba, next Sunday. A day later, Botafogo will be visiting Palmeiras (both Brazil Serie A matches).
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo: Head to head Stats
Two wins for Sao Paulo, two for Botafogo, and one draw, in the last five games between these two in Sao Paulo. Two of those five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo: Prediction
From all the little details I feel someone needs to take into consideration regarding this game, what weighs in the most for me is Sao Paulo’s very-very good run at home the last month and a half. That’s what gives me that little last push to go with their win, despite the fact that it pay less than 2,00, making it less tempting to my eyes.
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo: Betting Tips
Sao Paulo’s win pays 1.83. They have scored 15 goals in their last eight home games, two in most of those, while also conceding on all but two, so “over 2.5 goals”, at 2.05, looks promising. Going all for all, Sao Paulo and over 2.5 goals pays a very good 3.10.
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