Sport Recife vs Gremio
Competition: Brazilian Serie A
Date: 28 May 2017
Kick-off: 23:00 CET
Despite playing with an alternative lineup last weekend against Cruzeiro, Sport Recife earned an unexpected 1-1 draw. They played with several reserves because they had just faced Bahia in the first leg of the Copa do Nordeste final, and they had the return leg in Salvador a few days later. Bahia proved the better team in both games, earning a draw in Recife, and winning 1-0 at home. After the loss of the Copa do Nordeste, coach Ney Franco resigned, and according to reports, Vanderlei Luxemburgo is a strong candidate to take over. Whoever succeeds Ney Franco, will find a team used to rely on individual… inspiration, rather than on team work.
Gremio and Fluminense are the only teams with six points in their first two games in the championship, and especially Gremio are the only ones who haven’t conceded a goal yet. In eleven days they played four awesome matches, beating Botafogo 2-0 on the first day of the championship, Fluminense 3-1 in the first leg of their Copa do Brasil tie, Atletico Paranaense in Curitiba, last weekend, and Zamora on Thursday night, on the last day of the Copa Libertadores group stage, where they finished with the third best record among all 32 participants. Gremio obviously want to make it 3X3 in the Serie A, but they must have the return leg of their Copa do Brasil tie against Fluminense in the back of their mind. Dropping points at Sport won’t be a disaster, but losing by two goals or more at Fluminense will end their season in a competition they definitely want to win.
Sport Recife vs Gremio: Head-to-head Stats
Sport have built a great record against Gremio, beating them three times the last five they hosted them. The visitors have left Recife victorious only on one occasion, and one game has ended in a draw.
Sport Recife vs Gremio: Prediction
Interestingly, betting companies consider Sport clear favorites to win, mostly because Gremio played a Copa Libertadores game 72 hours earlier, and have a huge Copa do Brasil match 72 hours after this game. Personally, counting on Gremio’s rich roster, which has players, reserves, good enough to play as starters at Sport Recife, I expect the visitors to earn at least a draw.
Sport Recife vs Gremio: Tips
‘Draw or Gremio’ is at 1.61. A Gremio win and draw no bet pays 2.20. Betting on a Gremio win (without the ‘pillow’ of ‘draw no bet’) is a risk, at 3,10, and personally I would only take it combining their win with a clean sheet (yes, my way of dealing with a risk would be taking an even bigger one), which pays 5.00.