Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
Competition: Brazil Serie A
Date: 5 August 2018
Kick-off: 21:00 CET
Vitória’s humiliation at Atlético Paranaense last weekend brought the end of Vagner Mancini. The club have appointed João Burse as interim coach. Vitória are above the relegation line, on 18 points from 16 matches, but away from home they have been… well… the word is “horrible”, losing four of their last five matches, conceding 16(!) goals in those four defeats, at least three in every game. At home, they have three 1-0 victories in a row, over Chapecoense, Paraná, and Sport Recife. The players say that despite the… unpleasant situation, with their – previous – coach losing his job, the group is united, and promised to show their best side against one of Brazil’s strongest teams.
Cruzeiro were considered clear favorites to beat Sao Paulo at home last weekend, Sao Paulo’s double chance was at 2.20(!), and I had little doubt to suggest it. Cruzeiro ended up losing 0-2, doing even worse than what I expected. Mano Menezes… messed with the lineup a bit, having the Copa do Brasil match at Santos in mind. Midweek, I backed them to earn at least a draw in Santos, their double chance (1.53) and their win in “draw no bet” (2.10) were my two tips, and they won indeed, 0-1, turning into favorites to qualify for the semifinals. Cruzeiro are about to face Flamengo in Rio de Janeiro, in the Copa Libertadores round of 16. Menezes said there will be changes in the team’s lineup against Vitória, compared to who played at Santos, but avoided giving details, keeping the doors closed in Cruzeiro’s last two training sessions before this game in Salvador.
Previous five matches:
Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria 4-0
Vitoria vs Sport Recife 1-0
Bahia vs Vitoria 4-1
Vitoria vs Parana 1-0
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria 3-0
Santos vs Cruzeiro 0-1
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo 0-2
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro 2-0
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense 2-1
Cruzeiro vs America Mineiro 3-1
Vitória’s next game is at Gremio, next Sunday (Brazil Série A). Cruzeiro are visiting Flamengo on Wednesday (Copa Libertadores).
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro: Head to head Stats
Five Cruzeiro wins and a draw in the last six games between these two in Salvador, starting in 2010.
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro: Prediction
I’m backing Vitória to earn at least a draw, because they have a more than decent home record, and also – mostly – because Cruzeiro are in the middle of big games in two other competitions.
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro: Betting Tips
Vitória’s win in “draw no bet” is at 1.80, with their double chance down at 1.44. “Under 2.5 goals” pays 1.75, and I like it a lot. Actually, I would risk with “under 1.5”, at 3.25, having a 0-0 or 1-0 hunch.